Food & Beverage

US restaurant recovery is daypart-dependent

July 12, 2021

Though the restaurant industry nationally has shown great resiliency — even after losing up to 35% of visits at the start of the pandemic — NPD Group said it still has a significant way to go to recovery, according to a news release.

Total restaurant visits were off 6% this past May, compared to May 2019, but up from being down a hefty 23% a year ago. NPD said its daily foodservice tracking, however, is very much dependent on each daypart's own strength and rate of recovery, from morning meal and lunch to dinner and P.M. snacks.

Visits, online or physical, at morning meal, which includes the breakfast and A.M. Snack periods, were down 5% in May 2021 compared to May 2020, while they were down 11% compared to the same month two years ago. Since morning meal visits are habitual, recovery for this daypart will depend on consumers returning to workplaces and schools.

Lunch traffic — down 4% this May compared to a year ago and down 10% compared to two years ago — will depend on the return to offices and workplaces and more midday activities, like shopping. Visits at the dinner daypart were down 5% in May 2021 from a year ago and down 12% from two years ago. The ability for restaurants to operate at total capacity, consumer comfort with dining in, and more business and recreational travel will aid recovery at the dinner daypart, the company said in the release.

P.M. Snack, which has benefited from more flexible schedules blurring the dayparts and customers' hesitancy to dine in, is the only daypart that has increased visits over the past year. Visits for P.M. Snack were up this May 8% compared to May 2019 and up 3% compared to two years ago. Since this daypart has increased traffic during the pandemic, operators will need to innovate their food and beverage offerings to grow traffic, NPD said.

"Across dayparts, the motivations for visiting restaurants are evolving, necessitating a refocus on how restaurant operators target consumers," David Portalatin, NPD food industry advisor, said in the release. "Quality, value, and innovation will always be relevant to the consumer, but we also need to recognize that in many ways the world has fundamentally changed."