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Restaurant transactions drop 42% in wake of COVID-19 dine-in closures

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April 6, 2020

Restaurant customer transactions in the U.S. fell sharply in the last week of March, dropping 42% compared to the same week in 2019, and full-service restaurant transactions dipped 79% in the same time comparison.

The declines are due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic which has prompted the closure of restaurants, bars and taverns and allowing only pick-up or delivered food orders.

The figure comes from The NPD Group's Crest Performance Alerts, which provide a weekly view of chain-specific transaction and trends for 70 fast casual, QSR and casual dining brands. The research firm, in a press release, noted 97% of U.S. restaurants have been impacted by mandated closures.

"While steep transaction declines are being seen industrywide, some restaurant models are better suited than others to retain existing off-premise business, like drive-thru, carry-out, and delivery," according to a press release from NPD.

Quick service restaurants saw transactions declines of 40% in the week ending March 29 compared to the same period year ago. 

Prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, on-premise dining represented 52% of restaurant industry dollars, and off-premise, like carry out, drive-thru and delivery, represented 48% of dollars, according to the release.

"The transaction declines partially reflect the struggle of on-premise restaurants to pivot to off-premise models," David Portalatin, NPD food industry advisor and author of Eating Patterns in America, said in the release. "Many restaurants that are attempting to make the move are doing so with limited menu offerings and without the benefit of drive-thru lanes. Anecdotally, some operators are giving up the cause and closing altogether."